As a Donald Trump supporter for years, and as someone who attended three sold out blue-state Trump rallies: one in Lowell, MA and two in Manchester, NH — I have a unique perspective on the state of the Trump campaign, and can provide incite not available anywhere else.
Rally 1 — Lowell Massachusetts — January 4 2016 (309 days before election 2016.)
Rally 2 — Manchester New Hampshire — November 7, 2016 (day before election 2016.)
Rally 3 — Manchester New Hampshire — August 15, 2019 (446 days until 2020 election.)
In Lowell, we got there six hours prior — it was bitter cold. O degrees fahrenheit with the wind blowing. The rally sold out, packed to the gills. We were among the first 50 people in line, showing up at 2 in the afternoon.
In Manchester, our second Trump rally, (day before 2016 election,) we showed up a few hours early as well. It sold out as well, but two hours early put us in the top 500. Conclusion: Trump was more popular in November 2016 than January 2016. This level of support almost won him New Hampshire — it’s been twenty years since a Republican won the presidential race in New Hampshire — Trump lost New Hampshire by 3000 votes, but won the 2016 election in a landslide.
In our third Trump rally, over a year away from the election, we showed up at 11 AM — we were 4000 spots back! This time there were giant screens outside, and many thousands of people stayed to watch:
What’s my point? President Donald Trump is far more popular, far more powerful, and far stronger now than the day he won in 2016. Period. More energy, more supporters, more enthusiasm. He will crush whoever he runs against, it won’t even be close.
In the last election, Hillary outspent Donald by 2 to 1. In this election, Trump will outspend his opponent 5 to 1.
Trump wins in a landslide — both electorally and popular vote.
Trump wins at least one deep blue state: Oregon, Washington, New Jersey — ETC
My advice to the Trump campaign:
Organize yuge Trump-watching tailgate-style parties — with large screens in large venues on the night of the rally.
Choose larger venues: move out of the arenas and into football stadiums.
Start going to deep blue states early — get volunteers! Build your database! Just to fuck with them:
All of these states can be won easily with a little effort, an early visit, and minimal cash. I wrote about this fire-starter strategy in 2016.